US President Donald Trump’s claim that India will buy $500 billion worth of American energy, agricultural products, coal and other goods under a newly announced trade deal has sparked sharp questions over the feasibility of such a commitment.
So far, neither side has released the fine print of the agreement. India has also not publicly confirmed any purchase obligation of this scale. Still, Trump and members of his administration have repeatedly cited the $500-billion figure, echoing a pattern seen in his earlier trade negotiations with countries such as Japan and South Korea.
Announcing the deal, Trump said India had agreed to buy more than $500 billion worth of US goods across multiple sectors as part of a broader reset in trade ties, following higher US tariffs on Indian exports earlier this year. However, the White House has not issued a detailed fact sheet outlining timelines, sector-wise targets or enforcement mechanisms. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior ministers have welcomed the easing of US tariffs, they have remained silent on any such import pledge.
The claim appears difficult to reconcile with existing trade data. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, US goods exports to India were valued at $41.5 billion in 2024, while services exports stood at $41.8 billion. Combined, total US exports to India were about $83 billion that year. In 2025, US goods exports to India were around $42 billion up to November.
Against this backdrop, a $500-billion commitment would be more than twelve times current annual US goods exports to India and roughly six times total goods and services exports combined. Even if spread over a decade, the pledge would imply annual imports of about $50 billion from the US — a level higher than India’s current total imports of US goods across all categories.