India’s crude oil imports from the United States (US) surged to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October — the highest level since 2022 — according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler as of October 27.
US export data suggests that October may close at around 575,000 bpd, while November imports are projected between 400,000–450,000 bpd, significantly higher than the year-to-date average of 300,000 bpd.
“The increase was economics-driven, supported by a strong arbitrage window, a wider Brent–WTI spread, and weak Chinese demand, which made WTI Midland crude competitive on a delivered basis for Indian refiners,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining, Supply & Modelling at Kpler, as quoted by PTI.
Brent serves as the global oil benchmark, while WTI Midland represents a key grade of US crude oil.
Geopolitical backdrop
The rise in US crude imports comes amid heightened trade tensions between New Delhi and Washington, following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 50% tariffs on Indian goods, half of which were in response to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
The surge is being viewed as part of India’s effort to diversify oil supplies and ease diplomatic friction with the US.
Russia remains top supplier
Despite the recent shift, Russia continues to be India’s largest crude oil supplier, averaging 1.75 million bpd, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
However, these flows may face disruptions due to US sanctions on Russia’s top producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for around 60% of India’s total Russian oil imports.
Logistics challenges
Experts caution that while higher US imports reflect India’s refining flexibility, the trend may not be sustainable.
“While the surge highlights India’s ability to capture short-term opportunities, it remains arbitrage-led rather than structural,” Ritolia said, adding that longer voyage times, higher freight costs, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich yield limit the potential for further increases in US crude purchases.