Shrayan Sen
A fresh weather system forming over the Bay of Bengal has become the main focus for meteorologists, as it carries the potential to influence conditions over West Bengal in the coming days. While the system is still in its early stage, it may intensify further, and under its impact Bengal could witness light to moderate rainfall accompanied by cold-day conditions in the first week of December.
Forecasters, however, emphasise that the system’s track remains highly uncertain. At this stage, predicting whether it will move towards the West Bengal–Bangladesh coast or take a different route is not possible. Much will depend on how quickly it strengthens and how the steering winds evolve over the Bay.
Northern Bay Cooling May Weaken the System
Experts underline a critical seasonal factor: after mid-November, sea surface temperatures in the northern Bay of Bengal drop significantly. These cooler waters—especially near the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts—are not favourable for sustaining strong cyclonic systems.
This means that even if the developing system initially heads towards the Bengal coast, it may lose strength or even dissipate before coming close to land. Meteorologists therefore advise people not to panic or jump to conclusions based on early projections. The possibility of rainfall exists, but its extent and distribution will depend entirely on how the system behaves in the coming days.
Rain Prospects Shift Beyond November
Earlier expectations of late-November rainfall have now receded. Current assessments suggest that no rain is likely in West Bengal before November 29. The first week of December now stands out as the more probable window for any weather activity tied to the Bay system.
Temperatures Set to Dip Further
Meanwhile, the seasonal nip is getting sharper across South Bengal. Kolkata recorded a minimum temperature of 18.8°C, while Suri posted the region’s lowest at 15°C. Over the next three to four days, temperatures are likely to fall further, and Kolkata may see the mercury dipping into the 16-degree range as cooler conditions firm up.