Shrayan Sen
Even as some media outlets reported about a potential cyclonic formation over the Bay of Bengal, it is to be clarified that while a system might indeed develop over the sea in the coming days, it is expected to move towards the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts. As of now, there is no indication that it will impact West Bengal in any significant way.
Currently the conditions in the southern Bay are becoming gradually favourable for the formation of a low-pressure area or a depression. However, it is far too early to say whether the system will intensify into a full-fledged cyclone. The development and strength of such systems depend on multiple factors, including sea surface temperature, wind shear, and the presence of upper-air circulations.
Model guidance suggests that if a system forms, it is more likely to travel west-northwestwards towards the Andhra–Tamil Nadu coastline. There is no reason for concern in West Bengal at this stage.
It is to be further mentioned here that no significant weather system is expected to affect Bengal throughout October. Forecasts for November are still uncertain, and a clearer picture will emerge only towards the end of the month.
For now, the state can expect mostly dry weather, except for some light or patchy rain around Kali Puja due to local moisture build-up. This rainfall, however, will be very limited and short-lived.
But a rise in atmospheric moisture over South Bengal between October 19 and 26 could lead to a brief spell of warm and humid conditions. During this period, both day and night temperatures may increase slightly, causing mild discomfort, especially in coastal and southern districts.
In summary, a low-pressure system may form over the Bay of Bengal soon, but its movement is likely to be directed towards the southern peninsula. West Bengal, therefore, remains outside the impact zone for now, with no major weather disturbance expected in the immediate future.