India’s economy is projected to grow between 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in the 2026–27 financial year, according to the Economic Survey presented in the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday. The estimate is lower than the 7.4 per cent growth projected for the current financial year, pointing to a modest slowdown.
The projection broadly aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s outlook. The IMF recently raised India’s growth forecast for 2025–26 to 7.3 per cent, up by 0.7 percentage points from its October estimate, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance. For 2026–27, the IMF has revised India’s GDP growth outlook upward to 6.4 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
The Economic Survey said the Indian economy remains stable, but cautioned that slower growth in key global markets and trade disruptions caused by tariffs could weigh on exports and investor sentiment.
For the ongoing financial year, the government has pegged growth at 7.4 per cent, higher than the 6.3–6.8 per cent range projected in last year’s survey.
The Economic Survey 2026 noted that India’s economy regained momentum despite facing steep tariff hikes imposed by the United States. It said growth estimates were cut after the US levied a combined 50 per cent tariff on several Indian exports in 2025, but actual economic performance turned out to be better than expected.
This resilience, the survey said, was driven by structural reforms and policy measures that helped the economy absorb external shocks and sustain growth.
Prepared by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the Finance Ministry, the survey added that investment activity and consumer demand are likely to improve as businesses adjust to recent policy reforms.
The Economic Survey was presented ahead of the Union Budget, which Finance Minister Sitharaman is scheduled to table on February 1. The Budget Session of Parliament began on January 28.