For much of last year, discounted Russian crude accounted for the bulk of India’s oil imports, providing a crucial financial lifeline to Moscow while significantly reducing New Delhi’s import bill. Although US threats, tariffs and sanctions triggered months of disruption, Russian oil supplies to India have proved far more resilient than many market participants had expected.
With discounts on Russian crude widening and a US trade deal still out of reach, analysts believe substantial Indian purchases of Russian oil could continue well into 2026.
“The world has become more challenging, despite the fact that there is no shortage of energy globally,” Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Friday. He was speaking ahead of India’s most prominent gathering of global energy officials, to be held in Goa this week. Russian crude is expected to be a major topic of discussion, along with the upcoming surge in global gas supply and renewed interest in nuclear energy.
US pressure has nevertheless had an impact. India, which relied heavily on Middle Eastern crude until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has attempted to rebalance its sourcing. State-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) has sought to secure long-term supplies from the Middle East, issuing tenders for Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude, Iraq’s Basrah grades and oil from Oman. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has also increased purchases from the spot market.
Even so, falling prices for Russia’s Urals crude—driven by US sanctions on major Russian producers—have made these supplies difficult to ignore. Reliance Industries Ltd., which had earlier adopted a cautious stance, has also placed fresh orders for non-sanctioned Russian cargoes.
State refiners IOC and BPCL, along with Nayara Energy Ltd., which itself faces sanctions, continue to import Russian crude.
“We know that oil will always find a way,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “The combination of US sanctions and the EU ban on products derived from Russian crude is taking a toll on imports and boosting demand for non-sanctioned crude. But I strongly doubt that India will stop importing Russian oil.”
At its peak, India was importing more than 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude. Volumes later declined to around 1.3 million barrels per day in December and are expected to remain broadly stable this month. According to analysts and traders involved in the deals, imports are unlikely to fall anywhere near zero, contrary to forecasts made in October after the US blacklisted Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.