Unsettled Weather Ahead for west bengal as unpredictability looms over Bay Systems

Shrayan Sen

Eastern India, including West Bengal, is likely to experience a spell of unsettled weather as multiple weather systems brew over the Bay of Bengal. The post-monsoon cyclone season appears to have entered an active phase, with at least two low-pressure formations expected to influence the region’s weather pattern between late October and early November.

Low Pressure Active Near Tamil Nadu Coast
A low-pressure area is currently active near the Tamil Nadu coast, bringing heavy rain to parts of the state. The system is not expected to weaken completely. Weather models suggest it may move northeastward and re-enter the Bay of Bengal. Under its influence, light showers are likely over parts of South Bengal this saturday and sunday.

Second System Likely in Bay of Bengal After October 27
The Bay of Bengal is set to remain active over the next 10 to 12 days. Between October 23 and 28, the current system near the Tamil Nadu–Andhra coast could intensify into a tropical depression or cyclonic storm, affecting Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha. Another system may form between October 28 and November 4 over the North or North-Central Bay of Bengal, with possible impact on Odisha, West Bengal, or Bangladesh. The track and intensity of this system will become clearer after October 25–26.

Favourable Conditions for Cyclone Formation
Meteorological conditions remain favourable for storm development. The Madden–Julian Oscillation and Rossby wave are both expected to support cyclone formation over the Bay of Bengal after October 27.

Rains Expected in West Bengal
Light rainfall is likely over Kolkata and South Bengal around October 25–26 from the outer influence of the first system. From October 28 onwards, rainfall is expected to increase, with several spells of moderate to heavy rain likely. North Bengal may also receive some rain, though no strong signal of heavy rainfall has been observed yet.

Cooler Air After Wet Spell
Once this active phase ends by early November, northwesterly winds are expected to strengthen, bringing cooler and drier air. This may mark the arrival of early winter conditions across West Bengal.